NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD turned last week’s resistance to support, which is now being tested as Ukraine hype unwinds and FOMC looms.  This is a still bullish chart working off an over bought condition.


SLV continues on with a classic test of support, as anticipated.  It is a technically neutral chart, but the somewhat orderly flag down to important support is a classic bullish set up.


GDX chart is untouched since last week and is a perfect illustration of why the majority of the headlines at the gold websites should be ignored.  The ‘Gold Stock Breakout!’  got the troops excited.  Well, GDX is back below resistance.  It also remains bullish but unchanged  in status for last week.  A corrective consolidation continues.


GDXJ is the same, but a somewhat more volatile story.


RIOM is included again this week as it was requested by a subscriber last week and I have had several inquiries on it from NFTRH subscribers, in light of IKN’s positive view.  This chart is also untouched from last week.  The “sloppy pattern” we noted last week is an ugly pattern this week.  It also came to the anticipated ‘buy’ zone (I bought it) of 2.10.  The stop loss zone (for traders) remains 1.90.  I bought this in spite of the pattern’s ugly look.  Pretty patterns tend to have importance for me (ref. the semiconductor stocks recently added for a trade, due to chart patterns).


SIL is another untouched chart.  It failed resistance and now looks for support at one of the two areas noted.  SIL is bullish as long as it is above the moving averages.


DBC is also unchanged from last week.  Bullish above support and degrading below it.  Struggling with the moving averages now.


DBA is very bullish, very over bought and very vulnerable to a significant decline.


USO turned support to resistance as it dropped down from its consolidation wedge.  It is trying to establish new support and is neutral.  It would be bearish below the 50 day MA’s and the support line.


UNG is another unchanged chart.  It has worked off an over bought condition and is bullish above support.  That level is a long term breakout point as well.  It will interesting to see if it holds up.


URA never did make it up to obvious resistance.  It is possible that it can lurch higher to that point but at some point the the key support levels are likely to be tested.  URA is technically bullish even on a test of 17.


TLT rose above 107 and turned it to support.  A break above resistance would be very notable and likely would come in concert with a stock market correction.  Let’s watch support and resistance closely.


SPY held support on the Ukraine canard (to no right minded player’s surprise) and bounced.  It is bullish up there, but MACD is still triggered down.  SPY is over bought and vulnerable still.


SMH remains above the equivalent of the SOX’ 10 year breakout line.  As long as this condition persists, the prospect of a big post-breakout rise is in play.  That would likely come along with a general market blow off (IMO to complete the bull).  But SMH is over bought, MACD is triggered down and thus it is vulnerable to continued correction.  Personally, I am going to watch Semi positions closely and consider taking some profits.


EZU is another chart untouched from last week.  Very self-explanatory.


EEM remains bearish below resistance.


FXI got even more  bearish last week, dropping below support (now resistance) to which it is trying to bounce back above.  Bearish.


Bottom Line

  • Precious metals remain on a short-term correction of the excess but are generally bullish, with silver (in my opinion) a bullish indicator in waiting as opposed to a bearish divergence.  That is just my current opinion folks.
  • Commodities remain a mixed bag depending on hype (Ukraine), weather and/or actual fundamentals (like China’s economic deceleration).
  • US stocks are bullish but vulnerable.  The same can be said of Europe.  Emerging and China remain bearish.