NFTRH Update 4.9.13, US Markets Near Resitance

It occurs to me that because NFTRH is focused on the precious metals as a big picture fundamental theme and managing that area has been a challenge, other areas are not always given enough time in interim updates.  So this morning let’s review some leading US markets that have shown technical damage as sponsorship thins out to the headline indexes.

Many global markets have bearishly diverged the US market and now these US markets (which generally led the rally) have bearishly diverged the Dow and S&P 500.  They are near important resistance that could a) cap the bounce attempt or b) open the bull case back up again.

Transports, daily

The Transports broke the 50 day averages, which was quite bearish.  Then, once again potentially claiming defeat from the jaws of victory, the bears saw a hard reversal.  Resistance is the red line.

Russell 2000, daily

The Small Caps as well dropped hard and reversed hard.  Resistance is noted.

SOX, daily

The SOX continues to look bearish as it made an ugly pattern and is below its neckline and the SMA 50.

BKX, daily

The Bank Index should hold below the trend line for the bear case to continue in the short-term.

Nasdaq 100, daily

Finally, the Nasdaq 100 is right at a resistance point.  It could easily break through for another tedious test of the upper wedge line.  On a bigger view, that could be an H&S top forming if this would-be right shoulder fails to put in a higher high to last September.

You may recall that one of my plans is to capitalize on whatever it is the market gives us in 2013.  In my perfect world that would be a bearish US stock market (where shorting pays off) and bullish precious metals (where sitting long the next phase of the secular bull pays off).  Realistically however, there is a good chance that what we will get is chop and grind, perhaps with a stock market downward bias and a precious metals upward bias.

But this is all pending trend changes and on the intermediate trends the stock market is still up and the precious metals are still down!  We should not try to will that to be any different.  We should wait for actual signals.  The resistance levels noted above should hold to indicate further short-term corrective potential for the stock market.  Otherwise, the market could still be topping but the process would truly be a grind to bulls and bears, that could extend through the spring.