NFTRH Interim Update 4.4.13, HUI, Gold & Silver

Here is the weekly chart from NFTRH 231.

HUI weekly, click for full size

With today’s action we have the potential for the 50% Fib to hold on a reversal from this week’s plunge.  That would be the case if HUI closes at or above the line tomorrow.  What this would mean is that this parameter will have held as the index plunged and reversed after daily chart finally became over sold to relieve that caveat.

Volume looks pretty good around the sector.  I added more CEF this morning along with some of the usual (quality) suspects that you have seen populate the NFTRH portfolios in the past.  This, in the anticipation that we may finally get at least a tradeable rally.

Gold and silver also plunged (to our long noted major support zones) and reversed.  While it is only one day, it is a good sign and was exactly what we’d have wanted to see.

While we should be aware of the forces arrayed against gold, we might also think about the legions of people that have been tended away from the precious metals as if they are now financially toxic instead of the opposite.  Aside from the conspiracy stories, I believe that the last 1.5 years has been a process of removing them from the investor base.  Nothing more, nothing less.

I am looking forward to tomorrow’s CoT data to see where we stand with the ‘smart’ money commercial traders.

Bottom Line

I suppose we should treat today (assuming the rally holds) as a good first step and nothing more.  But there are some positive signs developing.  We’ll manage risk as needed at the drop of a hat, but as noted in the previous update, there is now opportunity risk in play as well.