Why is NFTRH “A Different Kind of Financial Market Analysis“? NFTRH is different from services that follow markets using conventional technical and fundamental analysis because we have found that it is the relationships between different markets and asset classes that provide the most telling clues to pending market direction, often before standard TA catches on, and before evidence shows up in macro fundamentals. NFTRH is different because its writer has an innate understanding of human psychology and behavior and because he sets out daily to make sure his own set of biases and assumptions are in line before attempting to out think the market. Finally, NFTRH is different because the writer’s career in business has taught him that customer service is of the utmost priority and is ultimately key to long-term success. Unsolicited comments from subscribers show that NFTRH is on track and continually improving.
Is NFTRH a market timing service? In a word, yes. We absolutely do not wish to ride out unfavorable intermediate-term market swings in service to any long-term view. That is because we deplore major capital draw downs. We will often ‘hold the fort’ over short-term periods in order to avoid being shaken out of intermediate trends, but risk management is an ongoing and always important component. So we time the markets, mostly on a risk vs. reward basis.
Is NFTRH a stock picking service? No, not really. Equity holdings are shown weekly and ideas are presented either in NFTRH weekly reports or by email updates, when the risk vs. reward on a given situation is thought to be good. The writer manages and illustrates actual personal portfolios, not theoretical ones. Individual stock picks are not a priority, especially in the age of sector ETFs. Portfolio management in line with a given macro view is the priority. NFTRH is much more about getting the macro right than about individual equities. After all, if the market’s swings are managed correctly, the stock picking (again, including ETFs) is the relatively easy part. In short, if a pure stock picking service is what you seek, you should look elsewhere.
How does NFTRH evaluate its prospective stock holdings in individual companies? Technical analysis is the writer’s core competency when it comes to evaluating equities. In addition, NFTRH has close relationships and/or active subscriptions with quality services such as Quantifiable Edges, IKN Weekly, Mickey Fulp (Geologist), Bob Hoye, EWI and Bespoke, as well as other accomplished and highly regarded fundamental stock analysts. Finally, our macro work allows us to select from a range of ETFs to easily buy a market or theme that is aligned with current analysis.
Who Should Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who want a dedicated source that is always on the job tracking the market’s intermediate swings and thus its opportunities for alternately growing and preserving capital based on risk vs. reward. These individuals should not expect paint-by-numbers instruction, but rather know what to do with the macro information provided. NFTRH is for a macro market oriented readership and is not appropriate for a mass audience requiring ‘stock picker’ style analysis.
Who Should Not Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who wish to be told what to do without the need to understand the ‘whats’ and ‘whys’ of what they are doing. There is an educational aspect to the service that many subscribers have come to value. If you just want picks and if you just want to ‘make coin’ with no questions asked, this is likely not for you.
I have heard good things about your Interim Update services. Would you please elaborate? Interim updates have become increasingly valued by subscribers as the NFTRH service has evolved. Based on input from many subscribers, we have come to realize just how valuable these updates are to the overall service, especially during major turning points and/or upheavals in the financial markets. Updates are available for public review as the posts are unlocked about 2 weeks after being made available to subscribers. Interim updates include notable market events, ‘Key ETF‘ updates and NFTRH+ trade ideas.
What other subscription services do you use to supplement your research and analysis? NFTRH maintains premium subscriptions to SentimenTrader.com (sentiment is a key component of successful contrarian market analysis), SlopeCharts Premium (including ultra long-term charts) and the premium charting package at Stockcharts.com, which includes various charting tools and market sentiment and ‘internals’ indicators. NFTRH is always on the lookout for new services to combine with the writer’s abilities, to provide the best possible overall service and continual improvement to NFTRH subscribers.
Is your focus US-centric or global in nature? The writer is aware that the country he calls home, the US, coexists with other economies the world over. The great thing about investing is that it opens up boundaries to the entire world. Our focus is global.
What is the difference between your ‘standard TA’ and the so-called ‘forensic’ indicators? Though uniquely tailored to the writer’s strengths, the standard TA is simply select combinations of well known classic technical analysis. From there the work expands into ratios between different markets and assets, combines various elements of sentiment, momentum and macro-economic data points to give early warning clues to likely future events. Examples of these indicators would be the performance of ‘junk’ bonds vs. investment grade (credit spreads), and the performance of silver vs. gold (a metallic credit spread, to quote Bob Hoye). These can give major clues as to macro turns that may be in the offing. Standard TA on the other hand, simply projects probabilities based on nominal charts and certainly has a place in the analysis as well.
How did you first become interested in the financial markets? The writer saw his professionally managed funds declining significantly in a previous cyclical bear market (2000-2002) and was driven to find out what happened and why. In 2002, all accounts were pulled from an adviser and managed personally. Through hard work, a mostly self-taught brand of technical analysis and a natural contrary viewpoint, the gains have been more than satisfactory, annualized at about 35% per year from 2002 through 2010.
You tout a gain of 149% from the NFTRH baseline (1st issue, dated Sept. 28, 2008) at July, 2013. Are these figures before or after commissions and expenses? All portfolio performance figures presented are after expenses, which is how things work in the real world. NFTRH exists in the real world.
Are you an ‘Inflationist’ or a ‘Deflationist’? Keynesian or Gold Bug? None of the above as pertains to investment and trading. The writer strongly believes that digging one’s heels in to a given viewpoint can inflict unnecessary damage to one’s finances. NFTRH has identified what it calls the ‘Continuum’ (a decades long trend in treasury bonds) by which inflationary policy is enabled by the system’s deflationary ‘need to correct’ the excesses. An inflationary regime continues as long as there is a perceived deflationary threat to be battled by money printing policy makers. Hence, the writer considers himself something of a gold bug in the big picture, minus the ‘us against them’ mentality that promotes emotional and sometimes tragic, decision making.
I just subscribed… Now what? Shortly after subscribing (usually within 0-12 hours, depending on global time zones) you will receive a welcoming email with the latest issue of NFTRH attached, along with instructions for logging in to the archive and updates at the website. Then you will receive a full issue of NFTRH each Sunday along with interim email updates for as long as the subscription remains active.
I want to sign up, but I am just not sure if your style is for me and my particular needs. Please monitor the site (including interim NFTRH updates, which are made public after a time delay) and sign up for the free (and spam free) eLetter to get a feel for the writer. NFTRH is more formal and generally much more detailed than the public site in its analysis, but these sources will help you to get familiar with the brand of analysis, which is decidedly unconventional. Or simply give NFTRH a try with a monthly subscription and cancel at any time you wish with no further obligation.
How do I adjust my payment settings with PayPal? Simply log in to your PayPal account, go to your Profile, and click My money. Update your agreement in the “My preapproved payments” section.
Is the annual subscription option refundable? No! If you have any doubt whatsoever, please try the monthly option. For the record, many monthly subscribers convert to annual after getting in sync with the letter’s style. This can easily be done at any time through PayPal.
I no longer wish to keep my subscription, how can I cancel it? If you wish to cancel your monthly or annual subscription, simply do so within your own PayPal account’s ‘active subscriptions’ or send an email to gt @ biiwii.com or the ‘Contact’ form linked above with a request to cancel and it will be done promptly. You will remain on the email distribution list until the current payment expires. Remember that annual subscriptions are not refundable.
Can you sum up your philosophy and NFTRH in a simple paragraph? The financial market is bigger than any individual. There are no gurus. To succeed over the long term, a combination of patience, perspective and humility must be combined with a willingness to think out of the box. Now, add in hard work and a philosophy that customer service is job #1 and you have the makings of a world class financial market newsletter service!