I am not overly happy with the long-term view added as an edit in the previous post. So let’s show a clearer view of gold’s (and silver’s) Commitments of Traders from a 5 year perspective (courtesy of barchart.com). Frankly, I think I’ve been a little sloppy (or hurried, harried, distracted… ) in not finding and showing this view sooner. Vacations will do that (← no excuses bright boy!).
The CoTs for gold and especially silver are constructive and getting more so each week. We’ve been noting that for a few weeks now.
But I am using the December 2015 reading (green) as a ‘comp’ for when a real bull phase, as opposed to a heart breaker like December 2016 (blue) will come about. The CoTs have already taken out the blue example and silver has come to its equivalent green example.
There are a lot of other inputs in this market – including technical resistance aplenty, but going by the CoT data in a vacuum, risk vs. reward is now very low. There could yet be a negative pricing event but it would likely be a quick thing and it would also probably mark an important low. Alternatively, one real crack in the stock market and by association, investor sentiment, could get the precious metals going.
No real point here that has not already been made, except that I have probably been highlighting the cautionary side too much in relation to the developing bullish side; and it is developing.
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